Do state-dependent local projections asymptotically recover the population responses of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks? The answer to this question depends on how the state of the economy is determined and on the magnitude of the …
We estimate spillover effects among European sovereigns, financial and non-financial institutions over time. By allowing for the presence of common and layer factors, we can evaluate the different effects of shocks originating from common factors, …
Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and interactions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful measure of oil market risk (or …
We incorporate low-frequency information from demographic variables into a simple predictive model to forecast stock valuations and returns using demographic projections. The demographics appear to be an important determinant of stock valuations, …
This paper studies inference in cointegrating regessions and vector error correction (VEC) models when the cointegrating errors are a nearly integrated process with a low signal-to-noise-ratio. This combination of persistent, yet low variance error …
We study the construction of nonlinear impulse responses in linear structural dynamic models that include nonlinearly transformed regressors. We derive the closed-form solution for the population impulse responses to a given shock and propose a …